Circle, Coinbase seen as 'best proxies' for stablecoin upside as agentic payments emerge, Bernstein says

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein highlighted Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN) as primary vehicles for stablecoin exposure, pointing to the USDC partnership between the two firms and the emerging role of stablecoins in agentic machine payments as a potential upside driver.

“We view agentic machine payments as an upside optionality for stablecoins,” the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients on Monday. “This is not a ‘here and now’ material impact on stablecoin demand, but some potential role of stablecoins in the agentic machine economy.”

The analysts described machine payments as transactions initiated, authorized, and settled entirely by software or autonomous devices rather than humans. Unlike automated bill payments or recurring subscriptions, these payments are intrinsically programmatic, enabling real-time decision-making, price negotiation, and settlement without human intervention.

Bernstein said stablecoins are particularly suited to this environment because they are programmable, instant, micropayment-friendly, and globally accessible. Payment logic such as escrow, conditional release, or revenue splitting can be embedded directly into stablecoins, allowing agents to transact without calling a bank or waiting for confirmations.

Per the note, transfers settle in seconds, enabling AI agents to pay for compute or data in real time. High-throughput blockchains and state channels make it economically viable to execute microtransactions at scale. And, stablecoins are borderless, removing the need for SWIFT, correspondent banking, or FX conversion, the analysts said.

Several firms have begun building infrastructure to operationalize these capabilities. Coinbase is building the x402 agent payments protocol, which embeds payments into the HTTP layer of the internet, while Circle launched nano payments infrastructure for agents. At the same time, Stripe, through its blockchain investments in Bridge and Privy, launched the Machine Payments Protocol on the Tempo blockchain. 

Limited traction, but stablecoin volumes surge

Bernstein said the traction so far on machine payments protocols has been limited, noting that Stripe’s MPP clocked $5,000 in volume during its first week of launch. Coinbase’s x402 protocol has processed approximately $25 million in volume over the last 30 days. 

Despite these nascent figures, the analysts emphasized that their broader investment case for stablecoins does not depend on the success of machine payments, as the sector is already experiencing sustained demand across consumer and enterprise applications.

The note cited exponential growth in general payment use cases, including business cross-border settlements, consumer remittances, and card-linked stablecoin neo-banking. Circle’s (USDC) supply and volumes are currently at all-time highs, supported by a new category of fintech firms building exclusively on stablecoin rails. Notably, USDC now leads market share by transaction volumes despite being second in global supply by market capitalization, the analysts said.

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According to the note, the stablecoin investment case is "fast diverging" from the wider crypto market, positioning the assets as a hyper-growth financial services category.

The analysts concluded that investors should continue viewing Circle and Coinbase as the most direct proxies for stablecoin exposure. Agentic payments represent additional upside optionality, but the core investment thesis rests on broader adoption and liquidity of USDC.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equity securities of Circle and Coinbase.