Kalshi taps Pyth for new 'Commodities Hub,' offering gold, oil and lithium markets

Prediction market Kalshi has tapped crypto oracle protocol Pyth as a data provider for its newly launched Commodities Hub, essentially an interface for betting on oil, gold, and other commodities-related event markets, according to an announcement on Wednesday. 

Pyth will act as "the resolution source" for these markets. On Wednesday, Kalshi’s Commodities Hub has dozens of live markets around some of the most actively traded commodities. These markets frame bets around how high or low commodities like Brent crude oil, lithium, or soybeans will go, with binary options to choose above or below a specific price target. 

"As the exchange deepens our offerings in liquid commodities, it's important that Kalshi’s markets are backed by fast, institutional-grade data," Kalshi Head of Crypto John Wang said. "Pyth’s price feeds are both granular and easy to consume, complementing Kalshi's mission to make these markets accessible to a broader set of retail and institutional participants."

The move comes amid surging interest in prediction markets, which are increasingly being used not only for betting on specific events like elections but also wider sectors like commodities and the stock market. 

Historically, commodities trading has been restricted by the weekday operating schedule of exchanges like the CME. 

However, crypto platforms have extended market availability, with non-expiry perpetual contract providers like Hyperliquid allowing users to place weekend wagers. Prediction markets, too, are providing a new avenue for traders to gain indirect exposure to commodity price movements.

"Commodities markets are increasingly shaped by around-the-clock geopolitical developments, and market participants need price discovery that doesn't stop when traditional exchanges close," Pyth R&D firm Douro Labs CEO Mike Cahill said. 

According to the announcement, Pyth aggregates price feeds from over 125 institutions, including exchanges and market makers, to "provide a globally available real-time price suited for 24/7 resolution across markets and asset classes." The firm also offers a live data interface called Pyth Terminal.

Of note, the outcomes of Kalshi’s most liquid oil market, with about $4 million in volume, will be verified using ICE data.

Earlier this month, Polymarket announced an integration with Pyth for its commodities markets. The fully onchain Polymarket also uses Chainlink as an oracle. 

Both Kalshi and Polymarket are locked in a state of fierce competition not only to win market share and data distribution partners, but also over valuations. Kalshi was most recently valued at $22 billion as of March, while Polymarket is once again raising capital at a $15 billion valuation. 

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Although the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has reiterated its stance that prediction markets fall squarely within its federal remit, state-level regulators have challenged these operations, claiming they violate local gambling laws. 

U.S. senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis have also introduced the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" to specifically mitigate prediction market sports betting, which has emerged as the largest growth sector for these platforms. Some countries, like Argentina, are also moving to block access. 

The Pyth Network's native PYTH token is up over 6% to $0.048, according to The Block's data. The wider crypto market is also seeing green on Wednesday, with bellwether bitcoin up over 4% in a return to $79,000.